[FPSPACE] Report: North Korea ICBM test--missile used copy of RD-250 rocket engine

Keith Gottschalk kgottschalk at uwc.ac.za
Mon Jul 10 10:12:58 EDT 2017


    Hear, hear, to JimO's comment on reputations & the ISS.

   The ISS is our most important precedent to date for future international
cooperation on Moon and Mars projects. Even if all the promises of a two
order of magnitude reduction in costs for ELVs & Muskian mass production
occur, any one country's nationalist pride can only go so far in acquiring
a permanent budget.

- warmest, Keith.

On Mon, Jul 10, 2017 at 4:04 PM, <jameseoberg at comcast.net> wrote:

> No reputations need rescue -- as I've written, the unexpected benefits of
> a joint station were large enough to justify it in hindsight, even if all
> the original promises were spurious [not dishonest, but more imaginary and
> hopeful than well-based].
>
> ------------------------------
> *From: *"John Pike" <john at globalsecurity.org>
> *To: *"fpspace" <FPSPACE at mail.friends-partners.org>
> *Sent: *Monday, July 10, 2017 8:38:45 AM
> *Subject: *Re: [FPSPACE] Report: North Korea ICBM test--missile used copy
> of RD-250 rocket engine
>
> At 04:36 PM 7/9/2017, jameseoberg at comcast.net wrote:
> >  interdiction was a failure, and mostly for show.
>
> as one of the leading proponents of space cooperation for
> non-proliferation at the time, let me try to rescue my reputation
>
> 1 - It seemed like a good idea at the time, and had both political
> and non-proliferation components - the political [the Cold War
> is really over] was the more important, and it worked.
> The Plan B [keeping the human spaceflight enterprise going
> in the event of another Shuttle accident] also worked
>
> 2 - it could have been much worse - rather than a trickle from
> Miass there could have been an avalanche from the entirety of
> General Machine-Building [in which case by now we might
> be worried about ICBMs from Zimbabwe, which is at present
> under heavier sanctions than the DPRK]
>
> 3 - James is correct that the enterprises that were mainly
> working on ISS had gotten out of the missile business some time
> earlier, but the overall policy was also to facilitate Russian entry
> into the SLV business, and Makaeyev [the chiefest culprit in the
> case of the DPRK] was interested in that line of work [without
> much in the way of success].  Yuzhnoye managed to swing
> both ways, and all the others tried. But the issue was not just
> the NPOs and OKBs, it was also the people, who were a bit
> more fungible
>
> 4 - more generally on the space/missile walk across, if one
> looks at the OCD application of MTCR to India on LOX/LH2 upper
> stage, the USG position was that they were completely fungible
>
> 5 - At the time, I  saw this as a missile counterpart to the nuclear
> Nunn-Lugar, which would have made sense from a non-proliferation
> perspective. I was a voice crying in the wilderness. The nuclear
> non-proliferation crowd at DOE/DoD didn't see it that way, and
> pretty much thought that non-proliferation only involved
> 14MeV neutrons [that is, non-proliferation was nuclear]
>
> 6 - But at least the agencies who owned nuclear non-proliferation
> actually owned that account. NASA did not own missile non-proliferation
> and was too busy with Cheaper/Faster/Better[tm] to worry about it,
> and the fine folks at State who worried about missile proliferation
> were of the  view that they had solved that problem with MTCR,
> so the policy was an institutional orphan,
>
> 7 - Nunn-Lugar did not pose a threat to the American Military
> Industrial Complex, but space cooperation with the Russians did
> seem to pose a threat to the American Space Industrial Complex.
> In Congress, at least the Armed Services Committees gave some
> attention to the national interest, whereas the space Appropriators
> had long ago been captured by industry.
>
> 8 - Carl Sagan made sure I did not get the Space Council job,
> so I could not argue for a policy of broader engagement from
> within the Administration [fortuately for me, since I would not
> have been happy in that job, and my subsequently life would
> have taken a turn for the worse, so it was one of the best
> things that ever happened to me - bad for the world, maybe,
> but  good for me, for sure]. So I remained a voice crying
> in the wilderness
>
> 9 - it is surely more complex than this, but these are some
> of the main points as I saw them
>
> 10 - as Keynes said, in the long run, we are all dead
>
>
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