[FPSPACE] Speaking of Atlas V

Marc Boucher marc.boucher at spaceref.com
Wed Sep 17 19:51:48 EDT 2014


Hi David,

At this point the CST-100 will be launched on the Atlas V and most likely
the new variant powered by the new Blue Origin B4 engines when it gets
certified down the road. I doubt we'll see a CST-100 on a Falcon rocket
anytime soon, if ever.

And Boeing did not win first place. There were two equal winners. The five
NASA required certification milestones are the same for both companies.
Each company must, as part of the certification process, complete a crewed
demo mission. Once the certification process is over both companies will
have a minimum of 2 launches and up to 6. NASA left wiggle room based on
budget, ISS needs etc. The funding difference is simply what each company
bid to complete the same requirements set by NASA. Boeing just costs more.

Marc Boucher, SpaceRef
http://spaceref.biz - http://spaceref.com - http://nasawatch.com


On Wed, Sep 17, 2014 at 6:59 PM, David Portree <dsfportree at hotmail.com>
wrote:

> Hi, guys:
>
> My understanding is that CST-100 can operate on multiple boosters; the
> idea is that it's not stuck in integral booster/spacecraft system rut. So,
> if that's correct, it might be launched on some other man-rated booster
> (whatever that might be).
>
> I was pleased that Boeing, the fifty-year spaceflight veteran, won first
> place in the competition. It's hard to see how it could have been
> otherwise, given SpaceX's very limited experience. One thought -
> traditionally, second-place finishers in govt procurement competitions have
> not infrequently joined first-place finishers as subcontractors. Might
> SpaceX provide at least some boosters to launch CST-100?
>
> dsfp
>
> David S. F. Portree
> author and stuff
>
> Email:
> dsfportree at hotmail.com
> dportree at usgs.gov
>
> Profile:
> http://astrogeology.usgs.gov/people/david-portree
>
> Blogs:
> http://www.wired.com/category/beyondapollo/
> http://theportreelibrary.blogspot.com/
>
>
> ------------------------------
> From: cpgorski at gmail.com
> Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2014 13:54:00 -0400
> To: robert at collectspace.com
> CC: fpspace at www.friends-partners.org; mike at heney.net
> Subject: Re: [FPSPACE] Speaking of Atlas V
>
> Well--That makes a bit of sense, thanks, Robert!  I'm skeptical that
> supply will remain uninterrupted, and it seems to be a pretty optimistic
> theory that we won't see a supply interruption at all... but it's nonzero I
> guess, and if we're still getting them as of now, that's something (I
> didn't realize there were more in the delivery pipeline for this year).
>
> That plus an Aviation Week article sent to me off-list that claims a
> 2.5-year development cycle for a replacement engine by Rocketdyne (which
> also seems pretty strongly optimistic) at least seem to be two possible
> paths through the drought.
>
> Wonder how they'll play out.
>
> --me
>
>
>
>
> On Wed, Sep 17, 2014 at 1:47 PM, Robert Pearlman <robert at collectspace.com>
> wrote:
>
> ULA took delivery of two more RD-180s in August, and expects three more
> later this year. Six more are due for delivery in 2015:
>
> http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n1408/20rd180delivery/
>
> According to Spaceflight Now, ULA currently has 14 RD-180 engines in its
> inventory in the United States (including the two delivered in August).
> That supply is good for about two years, and ULA expects deliveries to
> continue.
>
> "...the company has emphasized that RD-180 engine deliveries are
> continuing unabated despite heightened tensions between Wasington and
> Moscow."
>
>
> http://www.spacenews.com/article/launch-report/41622ula-takes-delivery-of-two-rd-180-rocket-engines-from-russia
>
> ---
> Robert Pearlman, Editor
> collectSPACE - The Source for Space History & Artifacts
> www.collectSPACE.com
> Twitter: @robertpearlman | @collectSPACE
> Facebook: http://facebook.com/collectSPACE
>
>
> On Sep 17, 2014, at 12:29 PM, Christopher Gorski wrote:
>
> Just saw that go out via social media.  Though the word is, BE-4 can be
> integrated "about 4 years from now" [Bruno], so that would still be a
> schedule slip...
>
> still: better than nothing...  I wonder if that was what Boeing had in
> mind, though, and if this more or less means CST-100 won't be the one to
> pick up the flag...
>
> Thanks!
>
> --me
>
>
>
> On Wed, Sep 17, 2014 at 1:22 PM, Michael K. Heney <mike at heney.net> wrote:
>
> Watch today's presser with Blue Origin (3pm EDT, I believe) - should be
> info on new engine options ...
>
>
>
> Quoting Christopher Gorski <cpgorski at gmail.com>:
>
>  Speaking of the Atlas V and the commercial crew project:
>
> Has anybody heard anything about mitigation strategies for parts for the
> Atlas V?   My understanding is that Boeing's CST-100 was supposed to use a
> human-rated Atlas V as a launcher, but I think a lot of the reason this
> week's announcement got press is ongoing political tension with Russia
> right now, and that brings us back to the RD-180 problem.  Winning the US
> commercial crew launch contract and requiring Russian parts to do the job
> seems a little problematic!
>
> I caught most of yesterday's announcement press conference on video stream,
> and a good bit (though not all) of the Q&A that followed, but all I really
> heard them say was "the proposal included a mitigation strategy".
>
> Anybody have any idea what that might look like?  For the total contract
> value of around $4 Bn, I'm guessing it doesn't involve tooling up for
> domestic manufacture (or at least, I heard that this would be exorbitantly
> expensive).  I suppose it's possible to depend on a different human-rated
> rocket (Delta IV?), but if any significant amount of work was done on that
> process for Atlas, I'd think throwing that away and starting over would be
> a huge budget line item as well.
>
> Anyone have more insight into this than I do?
>
>
> Just curious,
>
> --Christopher Gorski
>
>
>
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