[FPSPACE] NASA failing to address asteroid threats?

Jens Kieffer-Olsen dstdba at post4.tele.dk
Fri Oct 11 11:57:26 EDT 2013


The threat from 1950 DA seems STILL great enough to warrant a dedicated
transponder mission to map its exact orbit:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2454094/Could-life-Earth-end-Mar
ch-16-2880-Scientists-predict-giant-asteroid-collide-planet-38-000-miles-hour.h
tml

--
Jens Kieffer-Olsen
Slagelse, Denmark        


-----Oprindelig meddelelse-----
Fra: Jens Kieffer-Olsen [mailto:dstdba at post4.tele.dk] 
Sendt: 13. februar 2005 20:05
Til: 'Mgr. CSc. Antonín Vítek'
Cc: fpspace at friends-partners.org
Emne: RE: [FPSPACE] Re: NASA administrator?


 True, but the Torino scale is of limited value due to the fact
 that it attempts to create a one-dimensional figure for a
 multi-dimensional risk.

 The usefulness of the scale is particularly limited when the
 number of observations for an Earth-approaching object is
 very low, covering a brief period of time only. Journalists
 are advised not to get excited over TS ratings of 1 under
 those circumstances, since the object could turn out to
 be millions of miles away on the date of virtual impact.

 With 2004 MN4 the situation is different, since there
 are observations covering almost a year. The rating of
 1 for certain years following 2029 is due only to the
 proximity to Earth of the 2029 pass.

 You have a similar situation with 1950 DA, the orbit of
 which cannot be refined to reduce its TS rating of 2 to 0
 any time soon, cf.:
 http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/doc/sentry_faq.html#1950da

 The fact that 2004 MN4 is also not getting its TS rating
 down to 0 any time soon renders its small risk of impact
 a concern for some time. Were the issue to be resolved
 only in the year 2029 it would be too late for diversive
 action in case of trouble.

--
Jens Kieffer-Olsen
Slagelse, Denmark        


> -----Original Message-----
> From: Mgr. CSc. Antonín Vítek [mailto:AVitek at seznam.cz] 
> Sent: Sunday, February 13, 2005 4:46 PM
> To: dstdba at post4.tele.dk
> Cc: fpspace at friends-partners.org
> Subject: RE: [FPSPACE] Re: NASA administrator?
> 
> <  Very well, but for the three passes of 2004 MN4 in years 2035,
> <  2036, and 2037  the Torino scale rating is 1, cf.:
> <  http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
> 
> You are right thaht Torino scale value for those fly-bys is 
> rated 1, But by definition this value means "no concern", cf. 
> definition at:
> 
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/torino_scale.html

Normal 
(Green Zone)  1  A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is
predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations
show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for
public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very
likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.  
  
Mgr. Antonin Vitek, CSc.






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